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An Open Letter

The Ukrainian Crisis - The Crisis is not Ukraine

First: Its History

1.     We need to remember that Russia has always wanted to revive the Soviet Union legacy, as a basic state ideology, that has nothing to do with President Vladimir Putin’s goals or ambitions.
2.     I remember on one of my visits to our Moscow office that I listened to President Putin speech delivered at one of Russia’s research centers. This was during the second year of his Presidency, where he said, "We have finalized the rebuilding of the Russian Federation and our principle message is to keep an eye on our geopolitical surroundings."
3.     We need to understand that when NATO came into existence, America wanted this western alliance to contain Russia and not to allow it to become its parallel adversary. 
4.     Both sides have ambitions to change the current World Order. The US wants to continue to lead the world and  Russia wants to return to restore its role as it was under the bi-polar system, when the world was governed by the US and its Western allies on one side and the Soviet Union and its allies on the other.

Second: What is this crisis really about?

1.     The war on Ukraine is only the start of a comprehensive war in the whole of Europe, with America excluded initially, but it will likely develop into a global war before the end of this year; possibly a third World War.
2.    China will undoubtedly stand with Russia  as a steady and a strong ally from the moment the expected global World War begins.
3.    In 1989, I took part in a seminar in one of the most important American research centers in Washington under the title of "Where will America be in 2020?" The conclusion of the three-day event was that the US would face an awesome economic opponent in the future, China, as economic rival. Therefore it was decided that America had to be prepared to face the challenge by all available means, because economic power is “power”.
4.Nuclear weapons are mere mutual deterrents and will not be used by any of the more than dozen countries owning them.

5.     Today, the challenges are greater than ever, with the tide changing and the focus not on the USA but on Europe, with Ukraine in the middle of the crisis. Although Ukraine is not a member in NATO, this war will remain as a European War.  Economic sanctions will be used as an alternative to active military participation. Economic sanctions were mainly invented by the US. Such sanctions were applied continuously but they reached their peak  during President Trump’s era. Sanctions have proven to be a double-edged weapon that hurts both sides; the punisher and the punished, with perhaps the worst impact being on the punisher. America, may opt not to participate in actual fighting and therefore negative impact on it will be limited.
6.    Sanctions will cause serious problems with respect to the the energy sector including  supply and cost of both gas and oil. It remains to be seen who will be affected most and who will benefit. What is expected to follow is a war of mutual sanctions.
 
Third: Crisis Stages

1.     The crisis however goes deeper than this. On the other side of the world is China, ready to re-take Taiwan through troop maneuvers as a reaction to any US-European action against Russia. Moscow believes that  the widening of the conflict will ease the  pressure on it. I strongly believe that the war on Ukraine is the first step towards a war on Taiwan which China historically considers as part of its territory. It  is the same situation as  Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine and Taiwan are related, wi